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Friday, March 7th, 2014 08:05 pm (UTC)
It's about natural gas: Russia sells and Europe buys. The Soviet natural gas industry began in Ukraine, and it is still a hub of the trade. Russia wants to control that hub and Europe would like to deny them that control.

It's also about Russia's centuries-old desire to become a naval power.

And, finally, it's about influence in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Central Asia: with Crimea in Russian hands and Syria and Iran Russian allies, Turkey is surrounded.

We seem to have returned to a 19th century multipolar world, and considering how that period ended, I find that very discouraging.

Ethic Ukrainians and Tatars mostly hate Russia, and for the best reasons: two centuries of brutal ethnic cleansing. They also hate Germany with only a little less cause. Yes, there's great-power politics at work, and all the powers are speaking in their own interest, but in the end there are Ukrainians who do not deserve to be ground between Russia and the EU, and Tatars who do not deserve what Russia is likely to do to them in Crimea.

(A few further notes on this, but the situation has moved rapidly and these are now a bit out of date.)

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